Most studies that modeled future fire activity considered only some of these factors. In order to prepare for these changes, it is necessary to identify how future fires will be affected by three factors: climate, land use, and socioeconomic changes. In the future, land-use changes along with changes in climate and human activity will strongly affect global fire regimes (Buckland et al., 2019). About a quarter of global fire emissions are estimated to be caused by deforestation (Li, Levis, et al., 2013). However, in regions with high rates of deforestation such as the tropics, land clearing activities cause a large proportion of fires (van der Werf et al., 2008 van Marle et al., 2017). The development of land management practices, changes in the proportion of cultivated and grazed land, and the building of roads have all contributed to a low fire activity compared to pre-industrial levels (Archibald et al., 2012 van der Werf et al., 2010). Over evolutionary time, particularly within the past 4,000 years, the human ability to manipulate fire has increased (Archibald et al., 2012). In order to characterize changes in fire regimes on a global scale, many researchers have tried to identify its drivers (Andela et al., 2017 Bistinas et al., 2014 Kelley, Bistinas, et al., 2019).įire occurrence and spread are affected by natural factors and human activities. In addition, fire emissions are a large global source of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols (Knorr, Jiang, et al., 2016 van der Werf et al., 2010), which can have a considerable impact on the radiative balance of the atmosphere (Langmann et al., 2009) and pose serious health risks (Rappold et al., 2017). Plain Language Summaryįire is an important component of terrestrial ecosystems, and can alter vegetation structure and distribution (as a disturbance), carbon and nutrient cycles, and water and energy budgets (Lasslop et al., 2020 Li, Bond-Lamberty, et al., 2014 Li & Lawrence, 2017). Appropriate land and fire management policies will be needed to reduce future fire damage in these areas. South America, Indonesia, and Australia were identified as high-risk regions for future DDF, mainly due to the expansion of wood harvest and pastureland. The impact of future land use change on future DDF was similar or slightly lower than present-day. The main contributor to these decreases in DDF burned area was climate change, especially the increasing of precipitation. We also predict that DDF will decrease from the current 73 million hectares per year (Mha yr −1) to 54–66 Mha yr −1 in the 2090s under RCP 6.0 and 46–55 Mha yr −1 under RCP 2.6. Our results indicate that the area affected by global total fires will decrease from the current 452 to 211–378 Mha yr −1 in the 2090s under RCP 6.0 and to 184–333 Mha yr −1 under RCP 2.6, mainly due to socioeconomic factors such as population and economic growth. We then predicted the state of fire regimes in the 2050s and 2090s under RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 scenarios. This enabled us to differentiate DDFs by cause (climate change, wood harvesting, and cropland, pastureland, and urban land-use changes) and seasonality. In this study, we expanded a fire model used in the Community Land Model to reflect the diverse causes of DDF. However, few studies have attempted to evaluate deforestation and vegetation degradation fires (DDF) and predict how they will change in the future. Globally, many parts of fire emissions are driven by deforestation.
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